UFC 113 Predictions

Main Event: Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida vs. Shogun Rua 2

The first fight between the two Brazilians resulted in perhaps the most controversial decision of the year. All three ringside judges scored the contest 48-47 in favor of the weary champion Lyoto Machida, who looked like he had been hit by a semi-truck rather then retaining his title. However, most, if not all, expert observers scored the fight for Shogun Rua. In fact, almost every person who wore their glasses that night believed Rua won the fight. My scorecards read the exact opposite of the judges, 48-47 for Rua. The rematch should be intriguing. Both men have undoubtedly made adjustments in their preparation, each man has had ample opportunities to analyze and dissect the others' game.

Shogun's strategy will remain the same as in the first meeting. He will look to attack the legs and body of Machida with punishing body kicks hoping to batter the champion, especially in the later rounds. Much of Machida's offense is based on his ability to launch explosive attacks from unusual angles. Speed and elusivness are crucial components of Machida's offense. Without the ability to move effectively, Machida will be a much easier target to hit. This time around, Rua will certainly push the pace. He doesn't want to leave the decision in the hands of the judges. Rua will do everything in his power to end the fight before the final bell, yet he will continue to fight disciplined with measured aggression. Don't expect to see the berserker Shogun that we all loved in Pride.

Lyoto Machida brought karate back from the abyss. Machida showed the martial arts community and the world that karate based techniques are still relevant in modern combat, and that certain ancient philosophies are highly effective when used appropriately. As a third degree Shotokan Karate black belt, Machida epitomizes the traditional martial artist. From a young child, Lyoto was trained to internalize discipline and dedication. He has combined elements from his karate background such as the wide traditional stance, unorthodox striking angles, and fleet footwork with other modern forms of combat chiefly muay thai, Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and wrestling. During the first fight, Machida was gradually worn down by the relentless leg and body attack of Shogun. Machida has learned that muay thai is a bad match up for karate. Muay thai is based upon attacking the legs. Muay Thai fighters stalk their opponents picking their spots carefully. With each successful leg kick, the thigh becomes weaker. Many muay thai fighters will attest that it only takes one good leg kick to do lasting damage. Machida cannot wait to counter Rua like he did to previous opponents. The champion was the most successful against Rua when he took the initiative. When he attacked first Rua was forced to retreat and reset. Machida must keep the pressure on Rua and force the challenger to make a mistake. If Machida stands in front of Rua I am certain he will get picked apart with kicks.


Prediction: Muay Thai is not a good matchup for karate. Styles make fights. Rua will claim the championship that eluded his grasp the first time around. Shogun by decision.