UFC 113 Predictions

Main Event: Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida vs. Shogun Rua 2

The first fight between the two Brazilians resulted in perhaps the most controversial decision of the year. All three ringside judges scored the contest 48-47 in favor of the weary champion Lyoto Machida, who looked like he had been hit by a semi-truck rather then retaining his title. However, most, if not all, expert observers scored the fight for Shogun Rua. In fact, almost every person who wore their glasses that night believed Rua won the fight. My scorecards read the exact opposite of the judges, 48-47 for Rua. The rematch should be intriguing. Both men have undoubtedly made adjustments in their preparation, each man has had ample opportunities to analyze and dissect the others' game.

Shogun's strategy will remain the same as in the first meeting. He will look to attack the legs and body of Machida with punishing body kicks hoping to batter the champion, especially in the later rounds. Much of Machida's offense is based on his ability to launch explosive attacks from unusual angles. Speed and elusivness are crucial components of Machida's offense. Without the ability to move effectively, Machida will be a much easier target to hit. This time around, Rua will certainly push the pace. He doesn't want to leave the decision in the hands of the judges. Rua will do everything in his power to end the fight before the final bell, yet he will continue to fight disciplined with measured aggression. Don't expect to see the berserker Shogun that we all loved in Pride.

Lyoto Machida brought karate back from the abyss. Machida showed the martial arts community and the world that karate based techniques are still relevant in modern combat, and that certain ancient philosophies are highly effective when used appropriately. As a third degree Shotokan Karate black belt, Machida epitomizes the traditional martial artist. From a young child, Lyoto was trained to internalize discipline and dedication. He has combined elements from his karate background such as the wide traditional stance, unorthodox striking angles, and fleet footwork with other modern forms of combat chiefly muay thai, Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and wrestling. During the first fight, Machida was gradually worn down by the relentless leg and body attack of Shogun. Machida has learned that muay thai is a bad match up for karate. Muay thai is based upon attacking the legs. Muay Thai fighters stalk their opponents picking their spots carefully. With each successful leg kick, the thigh becomes weaker. Many muay thai fighters will attest that it only takes one good leg kick to do lasting damage. Machida cannot wait to counter Rua like he did to previous opponents. The champion was the most successful against Rua when he took the initiative. When he attacked first Rua was forced to retreat and reset. Machida must keep the pressure on Rua and force the challenger to make a mistake. If Machida stands in front of Rua I am certain he will get picked apart with kicks.


Prediction: Muay Thai is not a good matchup for karate. Styles make fights. Rua will claim the championship that eluded his grasp the first time around. Shogun by decision.

Jose Aldo Jr. dominates Faber, proves to be one of MMA's elite

Jose Aldo Jr. (17-1) successfully defended his WEC featherweight championship on Saturday night against Urijah Faber (23-4) in a dominant five round performance. The Brazilian battered Faber for five rounds, doing severe damage with chopping leg kicks and vicious body shots. The California Kid was left battered and barely able to walk by the end of the third round, and was nearly finished on the ground.The former champion and hometown hero never gave up, pressing forward despite a badly bruised front leg, but was unable connect with any significant blows. Aldo's next fight will be against Manny Gamburyan (11-4) who demolished Mike Brown with a stunning first round knockout.

Gamburyan stuns Brown

One of the biggest winner of Saturday night was WEC featherweight Manny Gamburyan (11-4, 3-0 WEC), who shocked former champion Mike Brown with an impressive first round knockout. As a decorated Judo black belt, Gamburyan usually relies on his grappling skills to win fights. Against Brown, Gamburyan seemed content to keep the fight standing and scored early with quick and crisp combinations. After walking through a straight right hand from Brown, Gamburyan landed a flush uppercut to the former champion's chin dropping him in a heap to the canvas. Several unanwersed hammerfists left Brown's body stiff as the referee was forced to rescue him at 2:22 of the first round. The next opponent for the Ultimate fighter finalist will be current champion Jose Aldo Jr (17-1, 7-0 WEC) who completely dominated fan favorite Urijah Faber.

Aldo's keys to victory

Jose Aldo Jr. has taken the featherweight divison by storm. Undefeated for five years, the young Brazilian champion has knocked out his last six opponents in brutal fashion. In his last fight, Aldo mugged feared champion Mike Brown without breaking a sweat. Now he faces the toughest test of his young career in Urijah Faber. These are his keys to victory:

1. Control the center of the cage: Jose Aldo's main attribute is his devastating striking style. He will look to keep the fight standing and explode on Faber when he sees the opportunity. In order to do this, the champ must establish his power early and often. The longer Faber survives on his feet the more confident he will become. Take the center of the cage and make Faber fight your fight. Lure the hometown hero into exchanges and keep away from the cage.

2. Don't be overconfident/Don't underestimate Faber: Big shiny belts have a reputation of making people cocky and comfortable. Riding a six fight win streak must be pretty nice, and to be honest if I was Aldo, I would probably be feeling really confident walking into the cage. It is ok to be confident, but Faber is dangerous. The California Kid is hungry for that belt and is fighting in his hometown. Faber is looking for redemption and will not go down easily. Jose cannot underestimate his opponent's unorthodox style. Faber has the ability to do major damage from almost every position. He has a good chin, world class cardio, heavy hands, and a big heart. Also, Urijah is well rounded enough to stand and bang or take it to the mat.

3. Press the action: Don't lay back and wait. Press forward and pressure Faber with strikes.

4. Use BJJ pedigree only as a last resort: Avoid going to the ground with Faber. Although Aldo is a world class BJJ black belt, Faber is a gorilla on the mat and has submitted many top notch black belts. I believe that Faber is also physically stronger then Aldo and has better wrestling. In a pure BJJ contest Aldo would most likely win, but MMA is much different. Faber is a master of ground and pound and is unorthodox and quick in his scrambling abilities. If Aldo finds himself on his back he should stay busy and look for an opportunity to explode back to his feet.

Faber's keys to victory

Urijah Faber is by far the most dominant featherweight champion in history. He defended his belt a record 5 times and became the face of the WEC. Even after losing his belt to Mike Brown, Faber remains the promotion's biggest drawl due to his cheerful charismatic personality, gook looks, and electric fighting style. However, he has never fought a man as lethal as Jose Aldo Jr, a man who has not been defeated in 5 years and knocked out his last six opponents. Here are his keys to victory:

1. Survive the first round: Faber MUST survive the first round, especially the first 2-3 minutes, without taking any significant damage. The first 2-3 minutes is when Aldo is the most dangerous because he skips the usual "warming up" or "feeling out" process. Aldo is an offensive genius and attacks his opponents at unexpected times. Faber must remember that any "lull" in the action is a dangerous illusion created by the Brazilian. If Aldo senses an opening he will attack quickly and will not let up. So Faber must stay focused and tight. By tight, I don't mean nervous or stiff. He must keep his hands up and his chin down. Faber has a wide open style that is both brilliant and dangerous. Brilliant in that it spawns a creative striking and scrambling attack that keeps opponents off balance, dangerous in that Faber often leaves himself open in at attempt to be creative.

2. Don't rely on striking! Use wrestling base: Jose Aldo's takedown defense is excellent but Urijah needs to use his wrestling and apply constant pressure with takedown attempts and clinch work. Even if the takedown is stuffed, thats ok. Next time throw a quick combination and shoot for the single leg. If the single leg fails, press Aldo against the cage and drop for a double leg. As long as Aldo is forced to think about defending takedowns Faber has a chance. Faber cannot afford to let the champion get comfortable on his feet. The key to keeping Aldo off balance is to change levels and use angles. Urijah cannot abandon his wrestling and he must understand that most of his takedowns will be stuffed. While reviewing Aldo's footage, I noticed that the lone man to defeat Aldo constantly pressured him with takedowns. Finally, after at least five or six takedowns were blocked, Aldo's opponent succeeded in dragging him to the ground. After a dynamic jiu-jitsu battle, Aldo scummed to a rear naked choke.

3. Use the cage: This point is similar to #2. Open space is Faber's worst enemy in this fight. Aldo needs to either have his back against the cage or his back on the mat. Standing with the Brazilian in open space is suicide even to a striker of Faber's ability.

Cowboy gunning for the belt

The co-main event of tonight's' WEC mega event is a rematch of the 2009 fight of the year. The lightweight (155 lb) title is on the line as Ben Henderson faces Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone in a repeat of an epic war of attrition. After five rounds of frantic back and forth action during which each man nearly ended the fight, Henderson was awarded the belt by a highly controversial decision. This time around, Cerrone has vowed to use his much improved wrestling skills to keep the fight standing and punish Henderson early. In the first fight, Henderson was able to take Cerrone to the mat on multiple occasions and dictate the tempo of the fight. As Henderson faded down the final stretch, Cerrone began to take control with sharp combinations and hurt Henderson with punches. Many believe that Henderson won rounds 2 & 3 while Cerrone dominated 4 &5. Round 1 was up in the air as Henderson amazingly escaped various submission attempts that put him in extreme danger. For the rematch, I am predicting another intense back and forth slug fest. However, I believe that the result will remain the same. The champion has improved his striking to the point where he will feel more comfortable on the feet. Henderson can use his stand-up to set up takedowns early and attempt to wear Cerrone down. Cerrone claims to have focused on his wrestling for this fight, so Henderson will probably have to work harder to get "Cowboy" to the mat. I predict another five round battle with "Smooth" Henderson retaining the title. But who knows...anything can happen in MMA!

Tale of the Tape: Jose Aldo vs. Urijah Faber

Aldo vs. Faber is the most exciting featherweight match -up in history!! Both men are in their primes, and both have similar characteristics that makes picking a clear winner difficult. I have come up with a few key attributes that define great fighters and will see how Faber and Aldo matchup...

Speed: Advantage Aldo

- Jose Aldo Jr. is perhaps the fastest fighter in all of MMA. His speed inside the cage is breathtaking, especially when he swarms on opponents with punches, kicks, and knees. No one that I've seen has the ability to move from 0 to 60 as fast as Aldo. He can literally finish opponents in the blink of an eye. His foot speed is ridiculous and when he commits to an attack its always lightening quick. Faber speed is also impressive, but I don't believe he can match Aldo's "offensive acceleration" (for lack of a better term). This attribute grants Aldo the ability to pounce on opponents and finish them quickly.

Cardio: Advantage Faber

-Urijah Faber cannot get tired. Period. His endurance is legendary and his work ethic top notch. Plus, we have ever seen Aldo dragged into a long fight. He usually finishes his victims within the first two rounds.

Power: Even

-My boxing coach used to say "Speed equals power" and he is right. I believe that Faber probably has the heavier hands of the two but Aldo is no weakling. His power is amplified by raw explosive speed and devastating accuracy. The champion's strikes seemingly come out of nowhere and are always on target. Faber is also probably physically stronger then Aldo, which once again means there is some mustard behind his strikes.

Adaptability: Advantage Faber

-Faber is the most well rounded fighter in the division. He is comfortable in every aspect of the fight game and that makes him a very dangerous opponent. Faber can slug it out, clinch against the fence, or take it to the ground. On the ground Faber has submitted many jiu-jitsu black belts although he has no "formal" BJJ training (with a gi). Aldo doesn't want to play the jiu-jitsu game with Faber. Even though he is a BJJ black belt, the ground game in MMA is a completely different animal. Faber has gorilla strength and explosive scrambling abilities. It is also important to note that Aldo's only loss was by rear naked choke.

Killer Instinct: Advantage Aldo

- Aldo is the ultimate finisher. The Brazilian is like a shark in bloody water when he has his opponent hurt, he swarms and rushes in for the kill. If Faber can take advantage of Aldo's eagerness to finish the fight with well placed counter strikes he might catch the champion. However, that scenario is unlikely because when Aldo smells blood it usually ends quickly and violently.

Although neither man has a distinct advantage (2-2), I'm still leaning towards Jose Aldo. I just can't see how Urijah can overcome his speed and explosive power. Faber dropped two decisions to Mike Brown whom Aldo easily destroyed in two rounds. I also think that Aldo will stuff most of Urijah's takedowns and force the fight to remain standing, thus eliminating Faber's advantage on the ground.

Jose Aldo's rise to the top

Jose Aldo is one of my favorite fighters to watch. He is explosive, powerful, intelligent, and fierce. He has flair and wins in spectacular fashion. He is like a mini Anderson Silva but without the clown antics. On April 24th he will fight another of my favorite fighters, Urijah Faber, for the featherweight title. Many have labeled Faber as the most dominate featherweight of all time, and I agree. However, he will have his hands full with Aldo. Here is a nice video I found of some of Aldo's highlight.

Post fight melee is highlight of "Strikeforce on CBS"

The most entertaining part of Strikeforce's show on CBS was the post-fight melee involving Jason "Mayhem" Miller and the entire Caesar Gracie team. Each of the three title fights went the distance, lasting an excruciating 25 minutes and all three were dull wrestling matches. The most impressive performance went to Strikeforce middleweight champion Jake Shields who utterly dominated highly favored Dan Henderson. After being nearly knocked unconscious by Henderson in the first round, Shields bounced back utilizing his slick ground skills to control the former Pride champion. Surprisingly, Shields took down Henderson seemingly at will and was able to keep the gritty veteran on his back for most of the fight. A similar scenario occurred in the light-heavyweight title fight between King Mo Lawal and champion Gegard Mousasi. King Mo, a world class international wrestling champion, took Mousasi to the mat very easily and pressed the action for most of the fight. Before the fight I had Mousasi ranked as perhaps the number 3 light heavyweight in world. Another Caesar Gracie standout, Gilbert Melendez, retained his lightweight title with a beatdown of Japanese submission ace Shinya Aoki. Melendez had a solid strategy coming into the fight, and was able to avoid engaging Aoki in a grappling match which would have surely ended his night early. Instead, Melendez was content with picking Aoki apart on the feet.

White announces next opponent for Silva

On Tuesday night UFC President Dana White announced that Chael Sonnen will be Anderson Silva's next opponent. While appearing on ESPN's "Jim Rome is burning", White declared that the champion's showboating antics would not work against the tough, gritty Sonnen, "He’s got a real tough fight coming up. His next fight’s going to be against Chael Sonnen, and Chael Sonnen’s one of these guys who’s not going to lay back, not do what these other guys (did)". Sonnen impressed many observers in his last fight against top middleweight Nathan Marquardt, whom before the fight was widely considered as the #2 middleweight fighter in the world. Marquardt had no answer for Sonnen's brutally effective pressure tactics, in which he constantly pushed forward and battered Marquardt with repeated takedowns. Chael also showed an improvement in his stand up, as he was able to hold off Marquardt long enough to close the distance and complete takedowns. However, Anderson Silva is no Nathan Marquardt. Although Marquardt is a ultra talented and dangerous fighter, Silva is a unique blend of athleticism, speed, power, grace, and intelligence (although he doesn't always show it). What Sonnen does have an advantage in is trash talk. Sonnen has been talking tons of trash about Silva and his crew. Lets hope he can back it up!

Change in direction

Hey Folks!!

I have made an executive decision to shift the focus of my blog. Rather then focusing my discussion solely on the MMA world, I am now expanding my scope to martial arts in general. I consider myself a lover of all forms of martial arts, and considering that MMA does showcase various styles of fighting it is fitting to include them. I myself am a practitioner of Krav Maga and boxing, so I love to research and try to incorporate various styles into my self-defense philosophy and techniques. Each week I will post a different self- defense tactic, technique, or philosophy that I have picked up during training or have learned via research. Hope y'all enjoy!! Oh yea...UFC 112 predictions are coming soon!