UFC 111 predictions

UFC 111 takes place in Newark, NJ and has the potential to be the most exciting card of 2010. British welterweight powerhouse Dan Hardy faces the toughest test of his career in the form of champion Georges St. Pierre, who has looked nearly unstoppable during his past four fights. Also, former two-time UFC heavyweight champion Frank Mir battles top contender Shane Carwin for the Interim heavyweight championship. The holder of the interim belt is guaranteed a shot against current champ Brock Lesnar. Another intriguing match up pits bitter rivals Thiago Alves against AKA product John Finch in a grudge match with possible welterweight title implications.

Main Event: Georges St. Pierre vs. Dan Hardy

Dan Hardy is an 8-1 underdog in this fight and for good reason. St. Pierre has utterly dominated each of his last five opponents and seems to improve upon his vast array of skills each fight. What makes the French-Canadian such a force is his ability to seamlessly transition between the various disciplines of MMA. He is the "complete fighter", meaning that St. Pierre is a master of many disciplines and can use attributes from each to defeat his opponents. St. Pierre is also a freakish athlete and a obsessive perfectionist who trains with perhaps the most elite partners available. Dan "The Outlaw" Hardy is a brash, confident British gunslinger with dynamite in both fists and an unbreakable fighting spirit. Hardy's most distinguishing attribute is his technical, explosive Muay Thai striking. As evidenced by his brutal knockout of Rory Markham, the Outlaw throws a tremendous amount of force behind each blow, always looking to end the fight with one punch. While striking is Hardy's greatest weapon, wrestling is his biggest weakness. Even with a brown belt it jiu-jitsu under Eddie Bravo, Hardy will not feel comfortable on his back in this fight, and he will end up on his back. Much attention and hype has surrounded Hardy's decision to train with Matt Serra in preparation for this fight. I personally don't believe the hype. There is no way that a few weeks training with Serra will negate GSP's stellar ground game. GSP doesn't play the jiu-jitsu game, if a submission opportunity is available he will certainly seize it, but his main goal is control. St. Pierre's ability to take opponents down at will limits their offensive options. One of GSP's training partners explained the dilemma peferectly, "...You get worried about strikes and he takes you down, you think about takedowns then he punches you in the face...". Simply put, St. Pierre is able to take the fight wherever he wants it to go. If he is losing the stand up exchanges, boom, he shoots for a takedown. Even if the takedown fails, it forces the other guy to look for takedowns thus limiting his striking ability.

Hardy has to stay on his feet at all costs especially early in the fight. He does not want St. Pierre's newly bulked up frame, he will now weight about 192 during the fight, smothering him from the top. The Brit should also use his footwork to avoid clinches, especially against the cage. Everytime GSP manages to clinch Hardy has to make him pay with knees and sharp elbows. Even if he gets taken down, Hardy has to stay busy and strike from the bottom. Once there is breathing room he has to explode and get back to his feet and immediatly throw combinations. If Hardy can batter GSP on the feet there is a possibility that the champion will grow weary and impatient. An impatient fighter makes mistakes. Hardy only needs one opening to land a left hook. A left hook to the temple spells doom for St. Pierre.

We all know what Georges St. Pierre needs to do. Stay calm and relaxed. Use footwork and angles to confuse Hardy on the feet. Set up takedowns with crisp striking and don't be afraid of Hardy's power. We tend to forget that GSP has actually fought better strikers then Hardy. BJ Penn is arguably the best boxer in MMA with heavy hands, slick movement, and a granite chin. Thiago Alves is a hulking 170lb striking machine with devastating leg kicks and fast, aggressive punches. In both instances, the French Canadian was able to do enough on the feet to neutralize their attacks and control the tempo. I believe that St. Pierre does in fact have the tools to stand with Hardy the entire fight, but I don't think that would be an intelligent strategy. Why take the risk? GSP needs to use his powerful kicks and stiff jab to control the range and to keep Hardy on the defensive. Once Hardy steps into range and commits to his punches he is vulnerable for the takedown. In my opinion, Hardy's takedown defense is not good enough to stop any of GSP's takedowns. Both Alves and Finch had sturdy takedown defense and were utterly ravaged for five rounds. St. Pierre has nearly Olympic level wrestling despite having no background in the sport. Wrestling will be the deciding factor in this fight, and no one in MMA has better wrestling then St. Pierre.

Prediction: GSP by stoppage. Either submission (rear naked choke) or t/ko via ground and pound.