UFC 111 predictions

UFC 111 takes place in Newark, NJ and has the potential to be the most exciting card of 2010. British welterweight powerhouse Dan Hardy faces the toughest test of his career in the form of champion Georges St. Pierre, who has looked nearly unstoppable during his past four fights. Also, former two-time UFC heavyweight champion Frank Mir battles top contender Shane Carwin for the Interim heavyweight championship. The holder of the interim belt is guaranteed a shot against current champ Brock Lesnar. Another intriguing match up pits bitter rivals Thiago Alves against AKA product John Finch in a grudge match with possible welterweight title implications.

Main Event: Georges St. Pierre vs. Dan Hardy

Dan Hardy is an 8-1 underdog in this fight and for good reason. St. Pierre has utterly dominated each of his last five opponents and seems to improve upon his vast array of skills each fight. What makes the French-Canadian such a force is his ability to seamlessly transition between the various disciplines of MMA. He is the "complete fighter", meaning that St. Pierre is a master of many disciplines and can use attributes from each to defeat his opponents. St. Pierre is also a freakish athlete and a obsessive perfectionist who trains with perhaps the most elite partners available. Dan "The Outlaw" Hardy is a brash, confident British gunslinger with dynamite in both fists and an unbreakable fighting spirit. Hardy's most distinguishing attribute is his technical, explosive Muay Thai striking. As evidenced by his brutal knockout of Rory Markham, the Outlaw throws a tremendous amount of force behind each blow, always looking to end the fight with one punch. While striking is Hardy's greatest weapon, wrestling is his biggest weakness. Even with a brown belt it jiu-jitsu under Eddie Bravo, Hardy will not feel comfortable on his back in this fight, and he will end up on his back. Much attention and hype has surrounded Hardy's decision to train with Matt Serra in preparation for this fight. I personally don't believe the hype. There is no way that a few weeks training with Serra will negate GSP's stellar ground game. GSP doesn't play the jiu-jitsu game, if a submission opportunity is available he will certainly seize it, but his main goal is control. St. Pierre's ability to take opponents down at will limits their offensive options. One of GSP's training partners explained the dilemma peferectly, "...You get worried about strikes and he takes you down, you think about takedowns then he punches you in the face...". Simply put, St. Pierre is able to take the fight wherever he wants it to go. If he is losing the stand up exchanges, boom, he shoots for a takedown. Even if the takedown fails, it forces the other guy to look for takedowns thus limiting his striking ability.

Hardy has to stay on his feet at all costs especially early in the fight. He does not want St. Pierre's newly bulked up frame, he will now weight about 192 during the fight, smothering him from the top. The Brit should also use his footwork to avoid clinches, especially against the cage. Everytime GSP manages to clinch Hardy has to make him pay with knees and sharp elbows. Even if he gets taken down, Hardy has to stay busy and strike from the bottom. Once there is breathing room he has to explode and get back to his feet and immediatly throw combinations. If Hardy can batter GSP on the feet there is a possibility that the champion will grow weary and impatient. An impatient fighter makes mistakes. Hardy only needs one opening to land a left hook. A left hook to the temple spells doom for St. Pierre.

We all know what Georges St. Pierre needs to do. Stay calm and relaxed. Use footwork and angles to confuse Hardy on the feet. Set up takedowns with crisp striking and don't be afraid of Hardy's power. We tend to forget that GSP has actually fought better strikers then Hardy. BJ Penn is arguably the best boxer in MMA with heavy hands, slick movement, and a granite chin. Thiago Alves is a hulking 170lb striking machine with devastating leg kicks and fast, aggressive punches. In both instances, the French Canadian was able to do enough on the feet to neutralize their attacks and control the tempo. I believe that St. Pierre does in fact have the tools to stand with Hardy the entire fight, but I don't think that would be an intelligent strategy. Why take the risk? GSP needs to use his powerful kicks and stiff jab to control the range and to keep Hardy on the defensive. Once Hardy steps into range and commits to his punches he is vulnerable for the takedown. In my opinion, Hardy's takedown defense is not good enough to stop any of GSP's takedowns. Both Alves and Finch had sturdy takedown defense and were utterly ravaged for five rounds. St. Pierre has nearly Olympic level wrestling despite having no background in the sport. Wrestling will be the deciding factor in this fight, and no one in MMA has better wrestling then St. Pierre.

Prediction: GSP by stoppage. Either submission (rear naked choke) or t/ko via ground and pound.

Cruz dominates Bowles, Benevidez steam rolls Torres at WEC 47

Saturday night belonged to the underdogs. California based challenger Dominick Cruz dominated highly regarded and heavily favored champion Brian Bowles for two full rounds before winning by TKO after a broken hand forced Bowles to throw in the towel. Ultra talented Uriajh Faber protege Joseph Benevidez fought brilliantly against former bantamweight champion Miguel Angel Torres using timing and aggressive wrestling to negate a sizable reach difference. Early in the second round Benevidez faked an overhand and shot in for an easy double leg takedown. While in the closed guard, Benevidez opened a giagantic cut on Torres's forehead, and in the ensuing scramble sunk in a deep guillotine choke forcing the tap.

Biggest Winners:

Dominick Cruz- He had the by far the best performance of his career. The 4 to 1 underdog frustrated Brian Bowles with fast combinations, fluid footwork, and quick takedowns. Although Bowles broke is right hand early in the fight, I'm not convinced that the result would have been different. It was simply Cruz's night.

Joseph Benevidez- Another great performance! Benevidez is a force to be reckoned with at 135lb. He has knockout power in both hands, strong wrestling, and solid submissions. His victory against Torres proved he can be patient and use his speed with calculated aggression.

Biggest Losers:

Jens Pulver: WEC 47 marked the end of his legendary career.

Miguel Torres: Suffered second loss in a row and drops out of pound 4 pound rankings. Torres changed his camp after the upset loss to Brian Bowles but was simply overwhelmed by Benevidez. I was disappointed because I didn't see the fiery, passionate, and aggressive Miguel Torres that won the belt. He should have pushed the pace and forced Benevidez to fight his game. Instead, Torres was intent on sitting back and trying to use his reach. That is ok but it is not what Miguel Torres is all about. That is not what won him the belt, and its not what led him to be undefeated for five years. In being cautious Torres allowed Benevidez to find his rhythm and use his speed advantage. Just because you lose doesn't mean you change EVERYTHING!!!

Re-invented Torres is ready for redemption

After his devastating knockout loss to unheralded underdog Brian Bowles, Torres took a step back and reevaluated his priorities. The proud former champion is a fiercely determined and passionate competitor and is notorious for his unquenchable work ethic. However, these admirable qualities, the very building blocks of Miguel Torres's meteoric rise to the heights of MMA stardom, ultimately turned against him. He was strecthed too thin. Between running his own gym, coaching his fighters, teaching classes, and attending media events, there was very little time for actual training. On top of all these distractions, Torres got cocky. He started to believe the hype. Other fighters, such as WEC commentator Frank Mir, would routinely gush about the vast talent of Torres. The young Mexican-American's ferocity was legendary, and his willingness to engage opponents using thier own strenghts only blostered his almost mystical status. After the loss, Torres took time to reflect on his past mistakes and to settle his business, " I had to take some time to get my life in order. My business, my gym was going crazy, going out of control, getting new members, I expanded into a new place, taking care of my finances, my taxes, stuff like that, my family, my friends...". Once his life settled down, training and improving became priority number one.

Miguel learned that talent and passion alone can only take you so far. In the fight game an athlete must have clear cut priorities. Sacrafices must be made in order to stay on top. UFC welterweight champion George St. Pierre has been quoted as saying, "It is hard to become champion, but even harder to stay champion". Champions have giant targets painted on thier backs. Every young hungry fighter wants a shot at the belt. Brian Bowles was a young hungry fighter on August 9th. Bowles didn't have any distractions. He wasn't pulled in a dozen different directions. Bowles wanted the belt. Plain and simple.

I am looking forward to seeing Torres fight Benevidez. First off, it will be interesting to see how Torres deals with a loss. Will Torres retain his aggressive style or become more cautious? I have heard that some fighters are never the same after being knocked out. Secondly, what improvements have been made in his game? Miguel has trained with boxer Miguel Cotto in preparation for this fight so I am expecting his striking, especially punching combinations, to be sharper then ever. Also, Miguel has sought the expert advice of grappling wizard Robert Drysdale to help fine tune his already lethal BJJ skills.

Jospeh Benevidez is a tough opponent who should not be overlooked. However, Torres seems ready to re-claim the top spot. A fully focused and motivated Miguel Angel Torres is a scary creature for any 135lb fighter. And with redemption within arms reach, Torres is hungier then ever.